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CMA profile: Vancouver

Vancouver’s visible minority population could double
by 2031: new population projections

March 9, 2010

OTTAWA — The visible minority population of the census metropolitan area (CMA) of Vancouver could more than double from 910,000 in 2006 to just over 2 million by 2031, according to new population projections.

The main factor would be immigration, as well as fertility.

During the same period, the rest of Vancouver’s population is expected to increase at a much more modest rate of roughly 12%.

These projections on Vancouver’s diversity are based on a ‘reference scenario’, that is, the medium assumptions of how the population might evolve as determined by analyzing recent demographic trends.  Other available scenarios are a low-growth scenario that assumes low fertility, life expectancy and immigration, and a high-growth scenario that assumes high levels of each.

By 2031, visible minority groups could account for nearly 60% of Vancouver’s population.  Of the 2 million visible minorities, one in three would be Canadian-born.

Counting both first generation and second-generation immigrants, 70% of the population of Vancouver would be either immigrants or children born in Canada of immigrant parents by 2031.  This would be the second-highest proportion in Canada behind Toronto.

The largest visible minority group in Vancouver would be the Chinese, as it was in 2006.  Their population could double from 396,000 to 809,000 over the next two decades.  As a result, their share of Vancouver’s population would rise from 18% in 2006 to 23% in 2031.

The South Asian group, which ranked second in 2006, is likely to remain the second largest visible minority group.  They would account for 14% of the population in 2031, up from 10% in 2006.

The share of Vancouver’s population having a non-Christian religion is projected to increase from 16% to roughly 21%.  The proportion having a Christian religion is likely to decline from 50% to 47%.

The proportion of persons reporting no religion in Vancouver is likely to continue to be one of the highest of any metropolitan area in Canada, with this group accounting for nearly 33% of the population in 2031.  This would be virtually unchanged from 2006. This situation is in part related to the high level of Chinese immigration in Vancouver.  The population of Chinese origin has a high propensity to report no religion on the census.

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